Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 1254 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1254 GSP 07:01 → DFW 08:44 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1897 GSP 17:28 → DFW 19:15 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1254 American Flight history →	GSP 07:01	DFW 08:44	18%	4%	1.2%	81%
AA 3986 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 13:40	DFW 15:22	19%	4%	0.8%	81%
AA 3557 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 20:01	DFW 21:45	23%	6%	0.8%	63%
AA 1897 American Flight history →	GSP 17:28	DFW 19:15	30%	8%	0.8%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON