Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: YX 3444 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–26%.

Safest bet that day YX 3444 GSP 05:58 → EWR 08:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3518 GSP 19:49 → EWR 21:53 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3444 Republic	GSP 05:58	EWR 08:02	4%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 3700 United flown by Republic Flight history →	GSP 06:30	EWR 08:35	6%	3%	1.0%	94%
UA 3684 United flown by Republic Flight history →	GSP 11:18	EWR 13:20	14%	4%	0.8%	89%
YX 3622 Republic	GSP 11:34	EWR 13:51	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 3518 United flown by Republic Flight history →	GSP 19:49	EWR 21:53	26%	6%	0.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON