Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4751 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 4751 GSP 06:00 → LGA 08:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 4423 GSP 17:59 → LGA 20:03 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4751 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSP 06:00	LGA 08:04	6%	3%	0.8%	84%
YX 4578 Republic	GSP 06:00	LGA 08:02	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 4422 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSP 10:45	LGA 12:48	18%	5%	0.7%	76%
YX 4390 Republic	GSP 10:54	LGA 12:56	18%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 4423 American flown by Republic Flight history →	GSP 17:59	LGA 20:03	35%	10%	0.8%	57%
DL 5171 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 06:00	LGA 07:59	9%	5%	4.8%	91%
DL 4994 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 10:55	LGA 12:55	15%	7%	6.5%	85%
DL 5463 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 15:31	LGA 17:35	32%	18%	5.4%	68%
DL 5004 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	GSP 18:10	LGA 20:11	37%	19%	9.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON