Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3806 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3806 GSP 06:30 → MIA 08:26 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3558 GSP 20:00 → MIA 21:54 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3806 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 06:30	MIA 08:26	10%	5%	0.5%	89%
MQ 3976 Envoy	GSP 08:01	MIA 10:16	12%	5%	0.5%	no record
MQ 3350 Envoy	GSP 20:09	MIA 22:24	26%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 3558 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	GSP 20:00	MIA 21:54	30%	6%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON