Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1943 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1943 HOU 07:35 → ABQ 08:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1944 HOU 14:40 → ABQ 15:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1943 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:35	ABQ 08:40	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
WN 4682 Southwest	HOU 08:05	ABQ 09:34	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 261 Southwest	HOU 15:00	ABQ 16:16	26%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 4703 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:45	ABQ 23:55	27%	7%	0.6%	62%
WN 1944 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:40	ABQ 15:55	30%	10%	0.6%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON