Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2557 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 2557 HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1948 HOU 17:50 → ATL 21:00 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2557 Delta Flight history →	HOU 06:00	ATL 09:05	6%	2%	0.8%	90%
WN 2622 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:45	ATL 08:45	7%	1%	0.7%	94%
WN 2002 Southwest	HOU 05:35	ATL 08:41	7%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1947 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 09:25	ATL 12:25	12%	2%	0.6%	73%
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	HOU 17:17	ATL 20:32	13%	3%	0.7%	77%
DL 1195 Delta Flight history →	HOU 12:55	ATL 15:59	13%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 1509 Delta Flight history →	HOU 10:40	ATL 13:46	13%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 244 Southwest	HOU 10:05	ATL 13:12	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1949 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:05	ATL 01:10	20%	4%	0.6%	58%
WN 1948 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:50	ATL 21:00	21%	5%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON