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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 8% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → HOU 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 1970 1h 36m Denver DEN 08:31 → BUR 10:04WN 1557 6h 34m 100% 93%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671 1h 15m Las Vegas LAS 07:45 → BUR 09:00WN 3327 5h 30m 100% 93%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062 1h 20m Phoenix PHX 08:15 → BUR 09:40WN 3243 5h 20m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 07:35 → SMF 09:25WN 2082 1h 45m Sacramento SMF 11:10 → BUR 12:30WN 3765 6h 55m 97% 87%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039 1h 15m Chicago MDW 10:05 → BUR 12:25WN 2741 8h 00m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 06:35 → LAS 07:40WN 1998 2h 00m Las Vegas LAS 09:40 → BUR 10:55WN 2198 6h 20m 93% 85%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 08:15 → DEN 09:45WN 1971 2h 00m Denver DEN 11:45 → BUR 13:20WN 579 7h 05m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 07:35 → OAK 09:30WN 2056 1h 35m Oakland OAK 11:05 → BUR 12:15WN 1268 6h 40m 95% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671 46m Las Vegas LAS 07:16 → BUR 08:30WN 1285 5h 00m 8% 7%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON