Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4362 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4362 HOU 05:25 → BWI 09:39 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 184 HOU 15:25 → BWI 19:35 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 27% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4362 Southwest	HOU 05:25	BWI 09:39	7%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 3797 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:25	BWI 09:30	8%	1%	0.3%	95%
WN 852 Southwest	HOU 08:05	BWI 12:04	9%	1%	0.3%	no record
WN 1960 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:50	BWI 15:55	15%	3%	0.6%	73%
WN 1961 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:35	BWI 00:40	20%	6%	0.6%	54%
WN 4669 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:15	BWI 22:25	20%	6%	0.6%	58%
WN 2105 Southwest	HOU 15:50	BWI 20:04	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 184 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:25	BWI 19:35	27%	7%	0.6%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON