Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1636 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 1636 HOU 05:52 → DAL 07:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 54 HOU 20:30 → DAL 21:40 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1636 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:52	DAL 07:04	5%	1%	0.8%	95%
WN 4 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:00	DAL 08:10	8%	1%	0.8%	94%
WN 8 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:00	DAL 09:10	11%	2%	0.8%	88%
WN 14 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 09:30	DAL 10:35	12%	2%	0.8%	88%
WN 16 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 10:03	DAL 11:15	13%	2%	0.7%	91%
WN 22 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:30	DAL 12:40	15%	2%	0.7%	86%
WN 30 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 13:30	DAL 14:40	15%	3%	0.7%	76%
WN 40 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 16:00	DAL 17:10	16%	3%	0.7%	75%
WN 46 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:30	DAL 18:40	16%	4%	0.7%	73%
WN 36 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:00	DAL 16:10	16%	4%	0.7%	77%
WN 24 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:03	DAL 13:15	17%	3%	0.7%	81%
WN 52 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:00	DAL 20:10	17%	4%	0.7%	75%
WN 64 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:00	DAL 23:10	18%	4%	0.7%	65%
WN 54 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:30	DAL 21:40	20%	4%	0.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON