Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1970 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1970 HOU 05:30 → DEN 06:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 1777 HOU 14:40 → DEN 16:09 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1970 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:30	DEN 06:55	4%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 2606 Southwest	HOU 06:15	DEN 07:44	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 947 Southwest	HOU 07:55	DEN 09:23	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1971 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:15	DEN 09:45	8%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 1972 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 10:20	DEN 11:50	11%	2%	0.6%	81%
WN 2035 Southwest	HOU 11:01	DEN 12:30	16%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1975 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:45	DEN 00:20	18%	4%	0.6%	67%
WN 4639 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:25	DEN 21:10	19%	4%	0.6%	72%
WN 3069 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 12:55	DEN 14:25	19%	3%	0.6%	58%
WN 1974 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 17:55	DEN 19:40	22%	5%	0.6%	36%
WN 2037 Southwest	HOU 17:10	DEN 18:39	26%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1777 Southwest	HOU 14:40	DEN 16:09	26%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON