Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: MQ 3931 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3931 HOU 06:01 → DFW 07:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6385 HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3931 Envoy	HOU 06:01	DFW 07:16	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 5492 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HOU 06:03	DFW 07:29	15%	7%	1.3%	86%
AA 4036 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HOU 09:52	DFW 11:07	17%	5%	0.7%	94%worse than usual
AA 3351 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HOU 20:23	DFW 21:50	23%	6%	0.8%	73%
AA 5071 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HOU 10:18	DFW 11:43	26%	9%	1.2%	64%
OO 6458 SkyWest	HOU 11:43	DFW 13:16	28%	13%	0.8%	no record
MQ 4127 Envoy	HOU 14:15	DFW 15:39	28%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 6413 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HOU 12:46	DFW 14:09	31%	13%	0.8%	74%
AA 5002 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HOU 16:14	DFW 17:38	31%	14%	0.9%	60%
AA 6385 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HOU 18:49	DFW 20:15	32%	13%	1.0%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON