Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:45 pm at Houston); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:17, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	6h 20m	96%	69%
Southwest Details →	HOU 16:00 → DAL 17:10WN 40	2h 40m Dallas	DAL 19:50 → ECP 21:45WN 1937	5h 45m	97%	59%
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:30 → DAL 18:40WN 46	1h 40m Dallas	DAL 20:20 → ECP 22:21WN 1251	4h 51m	87%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:30 → DAL 18:40WN 46	1h 10m Dallas	DAL 19:50 → ECP 21:45WN 1937	4h 15m	73%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON