Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 21m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	6h 41m	94%	70%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:29DL 1195	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	7h 05m	95%	62%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	6h 14m	94%	60%
American Details →	HOU 09:52 → DFW 11:07AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:25 → EWR 19:04AA 618	8h 12m	100%	60%
American Details →	HOU 10:18 → DFW 11:43AA 5071 · flown by PSA	3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:53 → EWR 19:34AA 2861	8h 16m	97%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON