Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 14:24, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:30DL 1195	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → JFK 23:09DL 2101	7h 45m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 20m	96%	76%
American Details →	HOU 09:52 → DFW 11:07AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:00 → JFK 18:38AA 1040	7h 46m	100%	68%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:39 → JFK 22:30AA 1203	8h 44m	89%	61%
American Details →	HOU 10:18 → DFW 11:43AA 5071 · flown by PSA	1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:10 → JFK 17:56AA 1049	6h 38m	83%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON