Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2054 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2054 HOU 05:55 → LAS 07:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1058 HOU 22:50 → LAS 23:55 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2054 Southwest	HOU 05:55	LAS 07:05	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1998 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 06:35	LAS 07:40	6%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 3671 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:30	LAS 06:30	7%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 2705 Southwest	HOU 07:40	LAS 08:50	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 652 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 10:45	LAS 11:55	14%	2%	0.6%	82%
WN 2056 Southwest	HOU 10:40	LAS 11:50	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2003 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:25	LAS 19:35	22%	6%	0.6%	58%
WN 1058 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:50	LAS 23:55	22%	5%	0.6%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON