Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3179 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3179 HOU 05:30 → LAX 06:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4802 HOU 19:25 → LAX 20:50 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3179 Southwest	HOU 05:30	LAX 06:53	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2007 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:30	LAX 08:55	13%	2%	0.6%	84%
WN 175 Southwest	HOU 11:45	LAX 13:14	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2008 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:55	LAX 13:20	19%	3%	0.6%	73%
WN 4802 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 19:25	LAX 20:50	25%	7%	0.5%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 07:55 → LAX 09:20WN 2427	5h 00m	95%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON