tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:38 am at Houston); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Denver, leaving 12:55, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → HOU 12:55 → DEN 14:25WN 3069 3h 50m Denver DEN 18:15 → LGB 20:00WN 1037 9h 05m 100% 74%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 11:00 → BNA 12:55WN 1955 2h 31m Nashville BNA 15:26 → LGB 17:50WN 1486 8h 50m 99% 73%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 14:40 → SLC 16:50WN 4420 2h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 18:55 → LGB 19:57WN 3883 7h 17m 92% 72%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 12:00 → PHX 12:40WN 2063 3h 20m Phoenix PHX 16:00 → LGB 17:28WN 3896 7h 28m 92% 69%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 15:00 → DAL 16:10WN 36 2h 40m Dallas DAL 18:50 → LGB 20:04WN 198 7h 04m 96% 67%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 10:45 → LAS 11:55WN 652 2h 35m Las Vegas LAS 14:30 → LGB 15:44WN 2401 6h 59m 90% 66%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 14:25 → PHX 15:05WN 3304 1h 35m Phoenix PHX 16:40 → LGB 17:55WN 149 5h 30m 87% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → HOU 14:25 → PHX 15:05WN 3304 55m Phoenix PHX 16:00 → LGB 17:28WN 3896 5h 03m 51% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON