Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1037 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1037 HOU 07:30 → MCI 09:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2029 HOU 15:05 → MCI 17:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1037 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:30	MCI 09:25	8%	2%	0.7%	92%
WN 4603 Southwest	HOU 08:00	MCI 09:59	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2029 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:05	MCI 17:00	22%	4%	0.6%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON