Today: WN 1444 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet today WN 1444 HOU 05:00 → MDW 07:28 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4789 HOU 19:50 → MDW 22:19 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1444 Southwest	HOU 05:00	MDW 07:28	7%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 2085 Southwest	HOU 08:55	MDW 11:22	10%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 1294 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 08:10	MDW 10:40	11%	2%	0.2%	84%
WN 2041 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 13:30	MDW 15:55	16%	3%	0.5%	33%
WN 1019 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:20	MDW 13:45	19%	2%	0.2%	73%
WN 234 Southwest	HOU 12:55	MDW 15:22	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2044 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:35	MDW 23:05	24%	5%	0.5%	38%
WN 43 Southwest	HOU 18:45	MDW 21:15	24%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 2087 Southwest	HOU 15:20	MDW 17:47	24%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 4789 Southwest	HOU 19:50	MDW 22:19	25%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON