Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4745 at 20:35, 35%.

Safest bet today WN 4745 HOU 20:35 → MEM 22:15 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time Riskiest WN 410 HOU 14:45 → MEM 16:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Weather 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4745 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:35	MEM 22:15	35%	9%	0.3%	60%
WN 2092 Southwest	HOU 20:55	MEM 22:35	35%	9%	0.3%	no record
WN 820 Southwest	HOU 15:00	MEM 16:40	35%	8%	0.3%	no record
WN 410 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:45	MEM 16:20	37%	8%	0.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON