Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2049 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2049 HOU 05:35 → MSY 06:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 4641 HOU 15:01 → MSY 16:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2049 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:35	MSY 06:45	8%	2%	0.9%	95%
WN 937 Southwest	HOU 07:05	MSY 08:24	9%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 2096 Southwest	HOU 08:10	MSY 09:29	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1796 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:50	MSY 09:00	14%	2%	0.8%	88%
WN 2051 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 10:45	MSY 12:00	19%	3%	0.8%	86%
WN 683 Southwest	HOU 11:00	MSY 12:19	20%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2055 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:35	MSY 23:50	26%	6%	0.7%	73%
WN 582 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 18:05	MSY 19:15	27%	9%	0.7%	23%
WN 4756 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:40	MSY 21:55	28%	8%	0.7%	68%
WN 2052 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:15	MSY 15:25	33%	9%	0.7%	62%
WN 4641 Southwest	HOU 15:01	MSY 16:20	37%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON