Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:24 am at Houston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via San Diego, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 2102 Southwest	HOU 08:05	OAK 10:11	16%	1%	0.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:45 → ONT 08:55WN 4391	1h 34m Ontario	ONT 10:29 → OAK 11:56WN 3272	6h 11m	98%	92%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:45 → LGB 09:00WN 2019	2h 55m Long Beach	LGB 11:55 → OAK 13:10WN 2488	7h 25m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:35 → ABQ 08:40WN 1943	3h 30m Albuquerque	ABQ 12:10 → OAK 13:30WN 143	7h 55m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:35 → LAS 07:40WN 1998	2h 16m Las Vegas	LAS 09:56 → OAK 11:33WN 3968	6h 58m	96%	79%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:30 → LAX 08:55WN 2007	3h 30m Los Angeles	LAX 12:25 → OAK 13:51WN 2494	8h 21m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:55 → DEN 19:40WN 1974	2h 30m Denver	DEN 22:10 → OAK 23:50WN 1650	7h 55m	98%	75%
Southwest Details →	HOU 19:50 → PHX 20:35WN 982	2h 05m Phoenix	PHX 22:40 → OAK 00:45 +1WN 4951	6h 55m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	HOU 11:55 → LAX 13:20WN 2008	2h 40m Los Angeles	LAX 16:00 → OAK 17:26WN 2495	7h 31m	96%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:35 → LAS 07:40WN 1998	55m Las Vegas	LAS 08:35 → OAK 10:10WN 1254	5h 35m	74%	64%
Southwest Details →	HOU 19:50 → PHX 20:35WN 982	50m Phoenix	PHX 21:25 → OAK 23:20WN 3306	5h 30m	70%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON