Today: WN 4490 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–31%.

Safest bet today WN 4490 HOU 07:30 → OKC 08:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 4400 HOU 14:45 → OKC 16:05 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4490 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:30	OKC 08:50	8%	1%	0.2%	84%
WN 1528 Southwest	HOU 08:10	OKC 09:43	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
WN 2104 Southwest	HOU 14:32	OKC 16:05	25%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4896 Southwest	HOU 22:30	OKC 00:03	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 4400 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:45	OKC 16:05	31%	5%	0.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON