Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day


WN 4391 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:45	ONT 08:55	9%	2%	0.6%	77%
WN 4337 Southwest	HOU 08:00	ONT 09:20	11%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 1970	1h 35m Denver	DEN 08:30 → ONT 09:54WN 3001	6h 24m	100%	93%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671	2h 47m Las Vegas	LAS 09:17 → ONT 10:27WN 276	6h 57m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:35 → SMF 09:25WN 2082	2h 25m Sacramento	SMF 11:50 → ONT 13:24WN 3948	7h 49m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	3h 10m Phoenix	PHX 10:05 → ONT 11:20WN 431	7h 00m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039	2h 55m Chicago	MDW 11:45 → ONT 13:50WN 2846	9h 25m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:15 → DEN 09:45WN 1971	3h 15m Denver	DEN 13:00 → ONT 14:26WN 2947	8h 11m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:35 → LAS 07:40WN 1998	1h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 09:05 → ONT 10:10WN 4179	5h 35m	93%	83%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:25 → AUS 10:20WN 270	1h 25m Austin	AUS 11:45 → ONT 12:47WN 553	5h 22m	95%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:00 → PHX 12:40WN 2063	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 13:55 → ONT 15:05WN 670	5h 05m	75%	55%
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:50 → ONT 19:59AA 2236	5h 45m	65%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON