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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894 6h 34m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 6h 36m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 6h 32m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → HOU 12:55 → ATL 15:59DL 1195 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 19:15 → ORD 20:33DL 2486 7h 38m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → HOU 09:52 → DFW 11:05AA 4036 · flown by Envoy 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → ORD 15:51AA 2988 5h 59m 92% 72%
AmericanDetails → HOU 06:03 → DFW 07:29AA 5492 · flown by PSA 3h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:45 → ORD 13:25AA 3330 7h 22m 89% 70%
AmericanDetails → HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest 1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:12 → ORD 00:50 +1AA 1193 6h 01m 89% 69%
AmericanDetails → HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:50 → ORD 19:44AA 2474 6h 58m 89% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:38 → ORD 21:22AA 1424 5h 08m 71% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON