Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:28 am at Houston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4602 at 15:05, 35%.

Nonstops today


WN 4602 Southwest	HOU 15:05	RDU 18:55	35%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4411 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 15:10	RDU 18:50	37%	5%	0.2%	52%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 15:25 → BWI 19:35WN 184	3h 00m Baltimore	BWI 22:35 → RDU 23:53WN 1138	7h 28m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	HOU 11:20 → MDW 13:45WN 1019	1h 55m Chicago	MDW 15:40 → RDU 18:42WN 2971	6h 22m	93%	79%
Southwest Details →	HOU 15:00 → STL 17:00WN 5064	3h 34m St Louis	STL 20:34 → RDU 23:34WN 278	7h 34m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	HOU 11:50 → BWI 15:55WN 1960	1h 50m Baltimore	BWI 17:45 → RDU 19:05WN 183	6h 15m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 17:18 → RDU 18:54DL 1097	7h 14m	99%	75%
Southwest Details →	HOU 13:30 → MDW 15:55WN 2041	3h 00m Chicago	MDW 18:55 → RDU 21:50WN 4221	7h 20m	97%	73%
Southwest Details →	HOU 09:30 → DAL 10:35WN 14	1h 50m Dallas	DAL 12:25 → RDU 16:12WN 1752	5h 42m	92%	71%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:30DL 1195	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → RDU 21:59DL 3244	6h 35m	95%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:40 → BNA 19:35WN 1957	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 20:35 → RDU 23:15WN 4431	4h 35m	67%	45%
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:04 → RDU 23:48AA 542	6h 34m	73%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON