Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 21–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 3824 HOU 07:30 → SAN 08:40 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 4274 HOU 14:40 → SAN 16:01 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3824 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 07:30	SAN 08:40	21%	3%	0.3%	81%
WN 4486 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 13:45	SAN 14:55	25%	5%	0.6%	43%
WN 2115 Southwest	HOU 08:00	SAN 09:20	26%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 4274 Southwest	HOU 14:40	SAN 16:01	28%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON