Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:23 pm at Houston); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2122 at 22:35, 33%.

Nonstops today


WN 2122 Southwest	HOU 22:35	SAT 23:43	33%	7%	0.2%	no record
WN 4451 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 22:35	SAT 23:35	38%	8%	0.2%	54%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 17:10 → STL 19:10WN 4724	3h 05m St Louis	STL 22:15 → SAT 00:25 +1WN 3979	7h 15m	100%	70%
Southwest Details →	HOU 16:00 → DAL 17:10WN 40	3h 04m Dallas	DAL 20:14 → SAT 21:32WN 1457	5h 32m	98%	62%
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:40 → BNA 19:35WN 1957	2h 40m Nashville	BNA 22:15 → SAT 00:43 +1WN 713	7h 03m	100%	61%
Southwest Details →	HOU 16:56 → DAL 18:10WN 44	3h 49m Dallas	DAL 21:59 → SAT 23:13WN 1458	6h 17m	99%	59%
Southwest Details →	HOU 18:25 → LAS 19:35WN 2003	1h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 20:55 → SAT 01:40 +1WN 2335	7h 15m	85%	53%
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:30 → DAL 18:40WN 46	3h 05m Dallas	DAL 21:45 → SAT 22:55WN 2231	5h 25m	96%	51%
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:50 → SAT 23:58AA 1599	5h 09m	90%	45%
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:48 → SAT 22:00AA 1406	5h 46m	75%	37%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:55 → DEN 19:40WN 1974	1h 13m Denver	DEN 20:53 → SAT 00:09 +1WN 2607	6h 14m	73%	48%
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → SAT 19:43AA 499	3h 29m	49%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON