Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:32 pm at Houston); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:17, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Savannah on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Savannah on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Savannah is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → SAV 23:53DL 2860	5h 36m	93%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 15:25 → BWI 19:35WN 184	1h 00m Baltimore	BWI 20:35 → SAV 22:35WN 4611	6h 10m	67%	48%
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:14 → SAV 22:42AA 1092	5h 28m	66%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON