Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2077 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 11:15	SDF 14:25	13%	4%	0.5%	62%
WN 19 Southwest	HOU 13:15	SDF 16:31	16%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 08:10 → MDW 10:40WN 1294	2h 05m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → SDF 14:55WN 4473	5h 45m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039	3h 55m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → SDF 15:04WN 2985	7h 39m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:25 → BWI 09:30WN 3797	1h 15m Baltimore	BWI 10:45 → SDF 12:30WN 1297	6h 05m	100%	88%
American Details →	HOU 09:53 → DFW 11:07AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:17 → SDF 17:30AA 4152 · flown by Envoy	6h 37m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:10 → BNA 09:10WN 1954	1h 05m Nashville	BNA 10:15 → SDF 12:20WN 717	4h 10m	95%	84%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:00 → DAL 08:10WN 4	3h 45m Dallas	DAL 11:55 → SDF 15:01WN 1460	7h 01m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	4h 51m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624	6h 09m	94%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 17:40 → BNA 19:35WN 1957	55m Nashville	BNA 20:30 → SDF 22:30WN 671	3h 50m	71%	49%
American Details →	HOU 12:46 → DFW 14:09AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:30 → SDF 18:41AA 2321	4h 55m	72%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON