Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:35, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops today


WN 3566 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:45	SEA 17:25	33%	7%	0.6%	54%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 07:45 → LGB 09:00WN 2019	3h 50m Long Beach	LGB 12:50 → SEA 15:30WN 2574	9h 45m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 50m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039	1h 50m Chicago	MDW 10:40 → SEA 13:10WN 1340	8h 45m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:20 → STL 09:25WN 4084	2h 15m St Louis	STL 11:40 → SEA 13:55WN 3981	8h 35m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	HOU 10:40 → ATL 13:46DL 1509	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 25m	98%	76%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	3h 50m Phoenix	PHX 10:45 → SEA 13:50WN 814	9h 30m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	HOU 11:20 → MDW 13:45WN 1019	3h 30m Chicago	MDW 17:15 → SEA 19:45WN 2890	10h 25m	100%	73%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:35 → SMF 09:25WN 2082	2h 05m Sacramento	SMF 11:30 → SEA 13:26WN 3755	7h 51m	96%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 18:50 → MDW 21:15WN 2043	50m Chicago	MDW 22:05 → SEA 00:25 +1WN 647	7h 35m	69%	49%
American Details →	HOU 20:23 → DFW 21:50AA 3351 · flown by Envoy	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487	6h 34m	65%	40%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:00 → PHX 12:40WN 2063	50m Phoenix	PHX 13:30 → SEA 16:21WN 2970	6h 21m	59%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON