tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:08 pm at Houston)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 18:25, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → HOU 18:25 → LAS 19:35WN 2003 3h 20m Las Vegas LAS 22:55 → SFO 00:35 +1WN 2784 8h 10m 100% 74%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 19:50 → PHX 20:35WN 982 2h 00m Phoenix PHX 22:35 → SFO 00:42 +1WN 4171 6h 52m 100% 70%
DeltaDetails → HOU 17:17 → ATL 20:32DL 2381 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656 9h 19m 91% 66%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 14:10 → BNA 16:05WN 478 3h 30m Nashville BNA 19:35 → SFO 22:16WN 724 10h 06m 100% 64%
DeltaDetails → HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:30DL 1195 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 20:50 → SFO 22:49DL 545 10h 25m 96% 62%
AmericanDetails → HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → SFO 00:43 +1AA 446 7h 54m 92% 61%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 13:45 → SAN 14:55WN 4486 2h 30m San Diego SAN 17:25 → SFO 19:02WN 4259 7h 17m 95% 58%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 15:35 → AUS 16:30WN 352 2h 00m Austin AUS 18:30 → SFO 20:16WN 3439 6h 41m 81% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → HOU 20:31 → DFW 21:55AA 3391 · flown by Envoy 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → SFO 00:43 +1AA 446 6h 12m 72% 48%
AmericanDetails → HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:28 → SFO 21:10AA 1430 6h 56m 69% 39%
AmericanDetails → HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:03 → SFO 22:51AA 2522 6h 02m 55% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON