tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2125 Southwest HOU 08:05 SJC 10:04 9% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → HOU 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 1970 1h 35m Denver DEN 08:30 → SJC 10:06WN 1775 6h 36m 100% 93%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671 3h 25m Las Vegas LAS 09:55 → SJC 11:30WN 439 8h 00m 100% 93%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 07:45 → ONT 08:55WN 4391 1h 55m Ontario ONT 10:50 → SJC 12:00WN 3162 6h 15m 98% 90%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039 1h 15m Chicago MDW 10:05 → SJC 12:30WN 3752 8h 05m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 07:30 → LAX 08:55WN 2007 2h 20m Los Angeles LAX 11:15 → SJC 12:25WN 2432 6h 55m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 06:35 → LAS 07:40WN 1998 2h 15m Las Vegas LAS 09:55 → SJC 11:31WN 2415 6h 56m 94% 86%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 07:45 → LGB 09:00WN 2019 3h 00m Long Beach LGB 12:00 → SJC 13:10WN 4973 7h 25m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062 2h 45m Phoenix PHX 09:40 → SJC 11:35WN 3336 7h 15m 98% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → HOU 10:45 → LAS 11:55WN 652 50m Las Vegas LAS 12:45 → SJC 14:20WN 4223 5h 35m 67% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON