Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2126 Southwest	HOU 12:50	SLC 15:01	19%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4420 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:40	SLC 16:50	27%	5%	0.6%	40%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 1970	1h 41m Denver	DEN 08:36 → SLC 10:05WN 3502	5h 35m	100%	91%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2039	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 10:00 → SLC 12:25WN 2951	7h 00m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 07:35 → SLC 10:00WN 2957	5h 30m	100%	88%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:52 → DAL 07:04WN 1636	3h 06m Dallas	DAL 10:10 → SLC 11:58WN 1426	7h 06m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	HOU 08:15 → DEN 09:45WN 1971	2h 00m Denver	DEN 11:45 → SLC 13:25WN 1731	6h 10m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	HOU 06:00 → ATL 09:05DL 2557	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 50m	99%	84%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	3h 28m Phoenix	PHX 10:23 → SLC 13:02WN 4913	7h 42m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:55 → DEN 14:25WN 3069	2h 25m Denver	DEN 16:50 → SLC 18:35WN 1733	6h 40m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	HOU 18:25 → LAS 19:35WN 2003	50m Las Vegas	LAS 20:25 → SLC 22:55WN 4225	5h 30m	68%	52%
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → SLC 22:59AA 2993	5h 10m	67%	41%
American Details →	HOU 16:14 → DFW 17:38AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:48 → SLC 20:34AA 558	5h 20m	65%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON