Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:39 am at Houston)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 34% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → LAS 06:30WN 3671	1h 37m Las Vegas	LAS 08:07 → SNA 09:19WN 2434	5h 49m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	HOU 05:30 → DEN 06:55WN 1970	1h 35m Denver	DEN 08:30 → SNA 09:57WN 1849	6h 27m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:35 → LAS 07:40WN 1998	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 09:10 → SNA 10:20WN 187	5h 45m	95%	81%
Southwest Details →	HOU 06:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2062	2h 10m Phoenix	PHX 09:05 → SNA 10:30WN 3322	6h 10m	97%	80%
Southwest Details →	HOU 07:35 → SMF 09:25WN 2082	3h 55m Sacramento	SMF 13:20 → SNA 14:50WN 2738	9h 15m	100%	77%
American Details →	HOU 06:03 → DFW 07:29AA 5492 · flown by PSA	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:25 → SNA 09:33AA 2680	5h 30m	87%	73%
Delta Details →	HOU 14:24 → ATL 17:30DL 1195	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826	10h 01m	97%	72%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:55 → DEN 14:25WN 3069	3h 59m Denver	DEN 18:24 → SNA 19:48WN 3728	8h 53m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HOU 18:49 → DFW 20:15AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:16 → SNA 22:24AA 348	5h 35m	60%	45%
Southwest Details →	HOU 12:00 → PHX 12:40WN 2063	1h 25m Phoenix	PHX 14:05 → SNA 15:20WN 4690	5h 20m	61%	38%
Southwest Details →	HOU 10:45 → LAS 11:55WN 652	47m Las Vegas	LAS 12:42 → SNA 13:54WN 3086	5h 09m	34%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON