Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2133 at 05:10, 5%.

Safest bet today WN 2133 HOU 05:10 → TPA 08:32 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2134 HOU 15:15 → TPA 18:35 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2133 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 05:10	TPA 08:32	5%	1%	0.2%	92%
WN 2088 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 06:45	TPA 10:00	6%	1%	0.2%	92%
WN 2090 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 20:55	TPA 00:10	31%	6%	0.7%	68%
WN 2135 Southwest	HOU 20:25	TPA 23:46	31%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 3709 Southwest Flight history →	HOU 14:40	TPA 17:55	34%	7%	0.7%	34%
WN 2134 Southwest	HOU 15:15	TPA 18:35	36%	7%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON