Today: DL 3036 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–20%.

Safest bet today DL 3036 HSV 08:50 → ATL 10:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 3065 HSV 18:26 → ATL 20:32 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


DL 3036 Delta Flight history →	HSV 08:50	ATL 10:50	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 1708 Delta Flight history →	HSV 09:50	ATL 11:49	10%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 3171 Delta Flight history →	HSV 19:46	ATL 22:00	13%	4%	0.7%	78%
DL 3009 Delta Flight history →	HSV 07:12	ATL 09:17	14%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 3026 Delta Flight history →	HSV 16:20	ATL 18:25	15%	3%	0.5%	82%
DL 3068 Delta Flight history →	HSV 12:32	ATL 14:34	17%	4%	0.5%	89%
DL 2182 Delta Flight history →	HSV 12:35	ATL 14:41	18%	4%	0.5%	85%
DL 3065 Delta	HSV 18:26	ATL 20:32	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 4760 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 14:50	ATL 16:57	44%	24%	0.0%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON