Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3476 at 09:47 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3476 HSV 09:47 → DFW 11:58 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 5383 HSV 14:37 → DFW 16:45 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3476 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 09:47	DFW 11:58	16%	5%	0.7%	89%
AA 3394 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 05:00	DFW 07:11	16%	5%	1.5%	89%
AA 3578 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 09:32	DFW 11:41	18%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 3579 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 19:37	DFW 21:50	20%	5%	0.6%	70%
AA 3577 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 12:03	DFW 14:14	21%	5%	0.7%	86%
MQ 3504 Envoy	HSV 17:07	DFW 19:21	24%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3580 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 15:37	DFW 17:48	25%	6%	0.7%	70%
AA 3031 American Flight history →	HSV 06:00	DFW 08:11	26%	8%	1.2%	81%
OH 5141 PSA	HSV 04:59	DFW 07:06	26%	11%	2.3%	no record
AA 5205 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 18:18	DFW 20:30	30%	9%	0.8%	78%
OH 5038 PSA	HSV 12:31	DFW 14:40	30%	9%	0.8%	no record
OH 5219 PSA	HSV 19:05	DFW 21:14	33%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 5383 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 14:37	DFW 16:45	33%	10%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON