Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:02 pm at Dulles)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:46, is the safest bet: 47% chance of reaching Albuquerque on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 2070 United	IAD 17:50	ABQ 20:17	26%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 1822 United Flight history →	IAD 17:45	ABQ 19:59	28%	7%	0.2%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 2 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497	1h 44m Chicago	ORD 20:34 → ABQ 22:39UA 2144	6h 57m	87%	68%
United Details →	IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45UA 599	1h 26m Denver	DEN 21:11 → ABQ 22:44UA 4761 · flown by SkyWest	7h 03m	88%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 20:00 → ABQ 22:34UA 3640 · flown by Republic	6h 52m	69%	62%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695	53m Atlanta	ATL 20:47 → ABQ 22:02DL 1531	6h 16m	64%	47%
American Details →	IAD 19:31 → DFW 21:50AA 1904	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:56 → ABQ 23:49AA 2564	6h 18m	65%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON