Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:30 pm at Dulles)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38% (calm day: 25%). Best bet: United via Denver, leaving 15:56, 59% on time.

Nonstops today


UA 2073 United Flight history →	IAD 17:43	ANC 21:21	28%	9%	0.6%	74%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395	1h 08m Denver	DEN 19:11 → ANC 22:59UA 280	11h 03m	86%	59%
Alaska Details →	IAD 18:14 → SEA 21:09AS 737	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 23:59 → ANC 02:40 +1AS 1363	12h 26m	96%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAD 18:46 → MSP 20:56DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411	10h 13m	74%	59%
Alaska Details →	IAD 18:14 → SEA 21:09AS 737	48m Seattle	SEA 21:57 → ANC 00:41 +1AS 1560	10h 27m	34%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON