Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 637 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 637 IAD 08:30 → AUS 10:56 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest G4 234 IAD 16:30 → AUS 18:46 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 637 United Flight history →	IAD 08:30	AUS 10:56	11%	3%	0.7%	93%
UA 2746 United Flight history →	IAD 13:10	AUS 15:37	15%	6%	0.7%	82%
UA 2337 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	AUS 20:35	19%	7%	0.7%	80%
G4 234 Allegiant Flight history →	IAD 16:30	AUS 18:46	26%	10%	0.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON