Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1366 IAD 08:30 → BNA 09:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2264 IAD 17:42 → BNA 18:47 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1366 United Flight history →	IAD 08:30	BNA 09:29	12%	4%	0.4%	90%
UA 213 United Flight history →	IAD 12:50	BNA 13:49	15%	5%	0.8%	87%
UA 2264 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	BNA 18:47	22%	6%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON