tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → DEN 08:22UA 2031 2h 53m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 9h 18m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 51m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 81% 74%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12UA 1095 1h 11m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115 8h 19m 92% 72%
FrontierDetails → IAD 06:01 → LAS 08:23F9 4277 2h 52m Las Vegas LAS 11:15 → BUR 12:38F9 4107 9h 37m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 2h 27m San Francisco SFO 17:54 → BUR 19:20UA 1321 9h 40m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 2h 42m San Francisco SFO 20:20 → BUR 21:47UA 1367 9h 56m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 55m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 2h 31m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 9h 42m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 48m San Francisco SFO 16:15 → BUR 17:42UA 2764 8h 02m 74% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON