Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 5054 at 05:03 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 5054 IAD 05:03 → CLT 06:35 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1450 IAD 20:22 → CLT 21:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 5054 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAD 05:03	CLT 06:35	13%	8%	1.8%	91%
AA 5219 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAD 09:20	CLT 10:57	15%	5%	1.3%	84%
AA 5220 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAD 13:08	CLT 14:42	15%	9%	0.9%	72%
AA 1593 American	IAD 06:13	CLT 07:38	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
OH 5154 PSA	IAD 13:19	CLT 14:48	16%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 1591 American	IAD 05:06	CLT 06:29	16%	6%	0.8%	no record
OH 5101 PSA	IAD 09:19	CLT 10:47	16%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 1216 American Flight history →	IAD 06:33	CLT 08:00	17%	6%	0.8%	83%
AA 5447 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAD 19:17	CLT 20:46	20%	8%	0.9%	73%
AA 1450 American Flight history →	IAD 20:22	CLT 21:55	33%	9%	1.3%	52%
UA 6239 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:43	CLT 14:12	22%	7%	1.4%	78%
UA 6209 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:20	CLT 19:02	27%	9%	5.4%	73%
UA 6234 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:24	CLT 23:59	32%	9%	3.0%	68%
UA 4063 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:15	CLT 09:45	38%	2%	0.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON