Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3521 IAD 22:17 → CVG 23:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest UA 3546 IAD 17:19 → CVG 19:04 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3521 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 22:17	CVG 23:59	14%	4%	0.7%	70%
UA 3546 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 17:19	CVG 19:04	17%	4%	0.7%	82%
UA 6240 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:35	CVG 14:13	15%	0%	0.0%	85%
UA 4487 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 09:00	CVG 10:45	16%	14%	0.0%	84%
UA 4521 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:25	CVG 19:08	20%	9%	1.9%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON