tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:35 am at Dulles); 4 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 13–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2667 IAD 19:20 → DEN 21:27 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest UA 599 IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time
Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.
UA 2667 United Flight history → IAD 19:20 DEN 21:27 13% 5% 0.2% 74%
UA 495 United Flight history → IAD 22:23 DEN 00:30 13% 4% 0.6% 84%
UA 1865 United Flight history → IAD 10:13 DEN 12:05 15% 5% 0.3% 93%
UA 1587 United Flight history → IAD 12:48 DEN 14:42 17% 4% 0.3% 92%
UA 395 United Flight history → IAD 15:56 DEN 18:03 17% 4% 0.3% 79%
UA 1126 United Flight history → IAD 14:35 DEN 16:29 17% 4% 0.3% 82%
UA 599 United Flight history → IAD 17:41 DEN 19:45 22% 6% 0.2% 74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → IND 14:29UA 3402 · flown by Republic 1h 08m Indianapolis IND 15:37 → DEN 16:28UA 2821 5h 48m 88% 76%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:04DL 1324 51m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957 5h 39m 77% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON