Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2471 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2471 IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1904 IAD 19:31 → DFW 21:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2471 United Flight history →	IAD 08:30	DFW 10:53	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2617 American Flight history →	IAD 06:14	DFW 08:35	11%	3%	1.3%	85%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	IAD 12:41	DFW 15:05	15%	5%	0.6%	79%
AA 1906 American Flight history →	IAD 11:59	DFW 14:17	17%	7%	1.3%	79%
UA 2116 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	DFW 20:25	18%	5%	0.6%	72%
AA 1904 American Flight history →	IAD 19:31	DFW 21:50	28%	9%	1.3%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON