Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1825 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 1825 IAD 08:20 → FLL 11:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 2959 IAD 18:09 → FLL 20:52 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1825 United Flight history →	IAD 08:20	FLL 11:07	9%	3%	0.5%	89%
UA 1379 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	FLL 20:32	16%	6%	0.5%	81%
F9 2959 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 18:09	FLL 20:52	42%	14%	0.8%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON