Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	7h 10m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:04DL 1324	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 01m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 49m	98%	77%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:51 → HOU 12:16AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest	7h 02m	96%	75%
American Details →	IAD 11:59 → DFW 14:17AA 1906	2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:56 → HOU 18:19AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest	7h 20m	95%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAD 19:31 → DFW 21:50AA 1904	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	5h 25m	66%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON