Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3543 IAD 12:45 → IND 14:46 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 3585 IAD 17:23 → IND 19:16 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3543 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 12:45	IND 14:46	9%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 3402 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 12:40	IND 14:29	9%	3%	0.6%	81%
UA 3561 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 08:24	IND 10:13	12%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 3585 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 17:23	IND 19:16	15%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 3997 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:16	IND 23:59	28%	9%	0.0%	72%
UA 4021 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:16	IND 23:59	33%	17%	3.2%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON